The real path to success in sports betting lies in the numbers. This is the reason my sports betting strategy is based on numbers. There are now comical ideas, nothing to do with “luck” or half thought out ideas. If you take a look at the NFL though, there are studies out there that show there is another stat that can be used to your advantage, and it comes up later in the national football league season. This advantage has something to do with …..drum roll…..the home dog!
Overall it’s a terrible sports betting strategy to follow, with winning percentages falling well below the needed 52.4% needed to make even the smallest profit with 10 cent juice. However, research has shown that later on in the NFL season the Home Underdog play starts to make more sense.
If you wait until week fourteen a wager on the home underdog will just cover 51.4 percent of the time, and that is a losing idea. However, after week fourteen that amount jumps up to a profitable sixty percent. That is a big advantage to have on your side so late in the season. If you are blessed enough to find a home ‘dog in the playoffs, these come in at a success rate of nearly 78 percent. For more info visit sports betting sites with no minimum deposit.
Some more points to think about: playoff games offer a restricted schedule, not as many options for parlays or teasers – the weather is a bigger factor, so be sure you are careful about playing a warm weather team that is on the road.
In his study about late season home dogs, Richard Borghesi of Texas State University found that there was a statistically significant number of wins by home underdog teams to justify a winning formula. In studying NFL games from 1981 to 2000, he found that late season home dogs (weeks 15-18) beat the spread by an average of 4.46 points. You do have to keep in mind that there aren’t a ton of games to choose from so the sample size is relatively small, but there were enough samples to justify a statistical trend. In the playoffs, the home dog won by an average of 11.3 points (again small sample).
This may have you asking how this all lines up against the early weeks. Statistically, away teams win by zero point nine points when you take into account all of the games. In the later weeks (fifteen through eighteen) however, the home teams win by an average of two point six points, and home teams in the play off games win by about two point eight-six points. Gambling late home ‘dogs was profitable during each of the five year segments that were studied during this time.
Basically, it does not pay off to follow the buzz about a specific sports betting strategy or what is “hot” at the moment. However, when you do find a strategy that works, and has worked for a long time, you’d be a fool not to use it and stick with it!